It's tricky to gauge it Nova, but if I approach someone blindly with a direct, I often notice that it works no better or worse than any other approach. Sometimes it feels like it's even worse than non direct.
If I catch someones eye first, or get an IoI, I can go in direct and it usually gives a better result than if I go indirect in that matter.
It's all just me theorizing over this though, and there is no way to prove which way is right. Just that somehow I've got an instinct for what to use on an approach, can't have to many tools in your toolbox right?