Good post Tom, and nice to see you back here.

It's the same principle when a guy is on a date and he attempts to work out 'if she likes me'. He will try to watch and listen out for IOIs cues and assume certain things. Unfortunately he will get so caught up in the inconsistencies and focus on the negative or lack of IOIs he will become unsure of himself and fail to escalate things.

Assuming you know what a girl is thinking or intending is poisonous to any man's game. The only assumption I believe in (and you've said this yourself before Tom) is 'assume that it's on'.