Originally Posted by Phenom
So are you just making educated punts on sporting events? How do you ensure your bets have any value to them?
84% is a great strike rate, how many bets have you made to constitute that success rate?
I don't understand your tip. What's easy about those leagues? My understanding is that certainly from a betting exchange point of view, leagues like this often have very little liquidity making them notorious to scalp or glean any value from. Can you expand on how these markets are easy money?
I find this stuff interesting. If your making at least a 200% ROI that's very impressive. How long have you been doing this for?
Yes my bids are educated punts, though before a bid I spend a good couple of hours on research which will normally result in a bulk of bids.
Asian and Eastern European leagues are typically very easy to do research on and work out a high likelihood that the team you bid on to win, will win their match, especially in their domestic league; the champions league & Europa League have a lot more variables. That is more so in European leagues for example, Russia and Ukraine; there are about 2-3 good/really good teams in the first tier league within them countries and the rest of the teams are relatively poor in relation to those teams.
Asian leagues are a bit different, this is where research pays off quite a lot. In Asian leagues a chairman can be the chairman of vast number of teams within the country and will always have a favourite team or a team that is better than the rest. In this case, when that teams plays another team the chairman is also chairman of, the weaker team are generally required to lose. I'm not sure if this is primarily just to help the best team, giving them a good chance to win the league or whether it's a respect thing. It happens in quite a few Asian countries and also happens in a few European & South American teams too, those that is normally down to affiliates or similar as there are tighter rules on chairman's club ownerships.
Normally this match throwing is done subtly; a blatant penalty, etc.. but not too long ago there was a big scandal about it in the football community because a mid table team lost to their chairman's partner team (a team which the chairman liked more) 30 odd goals to 0 in order for them to win the league on goal difference. So research on these leagues really pays. The return from the Eastern European and Asian leagues isn't a great deal per bet but if you do the research and bet mid/high on obvious wins, high on what appear to be 50/50 games but after research (performance, injuries, owners, league position, affiliates, etc) normally you can expect to sway up to 80/20 in favour of 1 team and low on close calls.
My losses are mostly on the close calls, never lost an obvious win and I've had a few losses on 50/50 matches but they were ones I was prepared to take the risk on i.e. after research there was still little between them.
Individually I've made just over 250 bets with a 5 month period; May will be my 6th month. That doesn't take into account bets on English leagues, which I rarely do and other bets such as the grand national.
My first month I was very reserved and then the 2nd month I went a little wilder on the bets, some high £10+ bets on the Asian leagues and Swiss league (I think) and came out at the end of the month with £843.24. I realised I was very lucky with some high bets that month which basically single handedly made me that money so I made a set of rules and vowed not to break them, hence I didn't invest much of that money back into my account. I opened a savings account and I now add to that account each month with my return from the betting account - uni saving and for moving abroad (I'm not allowed to take money out of this account for at least 1 year; I imposed that rule and instructed the bank to impose it too).
My ROI is slightly more than 200%, its 207.86%. I know that at some point there will be a low, some dodgy game or whatever but I can't really complain, plus my research will go a long way to helping me identify those games. This month has been a quiet betting month, secretly it is because it's my birthday at the back end of this month and I didn't want that to tie in with a bad betting month. Still, I'm up £16 from my initial £40 account balance.